The scenarios one chooses to analyze and the estimates one makes for the variables of the FAIR model should be based on what is ____________, not what is _____________.

The correct answer emphasizes the importance of focusing on what is probable when analyzing scenarios and estimating variables in the FAIR model. The FAIR framework is designed to assess risk in a structured manner, relying on probabilistic estimates that reflect the likelihood of various outcomes rather than merely what could happen.

By concentrating on probable scenarios, analysts can make more informed decisions that reflect realistic risk evaluations based on historical data and expert judgment. This approach enhances the accuracy of risk assessments, aligning them with the actual likelihood of events occurring rather than just potential possibilities, which might be speculative or less grounded in reality.

In risk analysis, distinguishing between what is probable and merely what is possible ensures that organizations prioritize risks that are statistically more significant, reinforcing the rationale for effective resource allocation and risk management strategies. This principle underscores the reliance on quantitative analysis and empirical data to guide decision-making processes in risk management, which is a core tenet of the FAIR methodology.