What is the first step in making a calibrated estimate?

The first step in making a calibrated estimate involves starting with the absurd. This approach encourages individuals to think creatively and openly about the range of potential outcomes, no matter how far-fetched they may seem. This method helps to break free from conventional thinking and biases that could limit the estimation process. By considering extremes or absurd values, estimators can better understand the potential range and implications of their estimates, ultimately leading to more reasoned and informed assessments as they work to refine their initial thoughts.

Exploring absurd scenarios also serves as a valuable brainstorming tool, providing insights that can later be adjusted when narrowing down predictions. It establishes a foundation from which more realistic estimates can be developed by acknowledging the full spectrum of possibilities, rather than just the more probable outcomes.