What is the purpose of starting with absurd estimates?

Starting with absurd estimates serves to help identify values that are unrealistic or clearly not feasible in the context of risk analysis. This approach can be beneficial because it encourages analysts to critically evaluate their assumptions and the parameters used in their calculations. By proposing extreme scenarios, practitioners can effectively set boundaries for more realistic estimates, ensuring a more grounded analysis of potential risks.

When absurd estimates are put forward, they often highlight the limits of what can happen in a given situation, prompting discussions that clarify the factors influencing those extremes. This process helps in refining the overall risk analysis by eliminating outliers that could skew results or lead to unfounded conclusions. It also encourages teams to think outside the box and consider a wider range of possible consequences, thereby enhancing their understanding of the risk landscape.