Which of the following best describes a calibrated estimate?

A calibrated estimate is characterized by its consideration of various uncertainties and the incorporation of expert opinions. This approach recognizes that most estimates are inherently uncertain and that relying solely on numerical data or historical figures may not capture the full picture of potential risks. By integrating expert insights, a calibrated estimate not only takes into account quantitative data but also qualitative factors, which can provide a more nuanced view of risk.

In risk assessment, especially under the FAIR framework, understanding the context and variabilities of a threat or event is crucial. This synthesis of diverse inputs helps ensure that the estimate is more aligned with real-world conditions, allowing for better decision-making and more effective risk management.

Other options like strict numerical calculations or reliance purely on historical data may omit the dynamic aspects of risk that expert judgments can illuminate. Thus, option B accurately reflects the comprehensive approach necessary for producing a reliable calibrated estimate.