Which step follows "start with the absurd" in making a calibrated estimate?

The process of making a calibrated estimate often begins with the "start with the absurd" technique, which involves identifying an initial broad range of values that may seem extreme or unrealistic. Following this step, it is essential to refine the estimate further to enhance its accuracy.

Decomposing the question becomes an effective method in this context because it allows for breaking down a complex issue into more manageable components. By addressing each element individually, you can gather more precise data, eliminate ambiguities, and create a clearer picture of the factors at play. This breakdown can help identify additional variables or scenarios that contribute to the overall assessment, ensuring a more informed aggregation of the estimates.

In contrast, while eliminating highly unlikely values and referencing known information are also important steps in refining estimates, they would typically come after the initial decomposition of the question. Playing a calibration game serves as a method for testing and validating the estimates, but this generally follows after more refined estimation steps, including decomposition. Thus, focusing on decomposition first allows for a structured approach that informs the entire estimation process effectively.